Australia — which for years has been the world’s worst per capita greenhouse gas emitter* — is now suffering from a sustained drought and heat wave that is taking lives and reducing agricultural productivity significantly. Temperatures in many parts of the country have been hovering above 100°F for a record number of days, with only short pockets of relief here and there. As the heat wave follows on the heels of a record drought, the Australian government is blaming global warming, and many Aussies are worried about the pace of change, and rising costs of containing it.
The disasters this year are accumulating. A major electrical substation in Melbourne exploded after three days of 109° weather, plunging more than 500,000 homes into an extended blackout, shutting hospitals to all but emergency cases, and creating traffic jams that took hours to clear. More than 20 people in Adelaide have died. Railways and roads have buckled. Out-of-control fires are ravaging many states.
After 14 years of drought, water supplies are critical. The Australian Alps are losing their ice pack an an alarming rate, so that water from prolific Murray-Darling river system — which feeds many in the wine industry and agricultural sectors — fails to reach the ocean four days out of 10; it will be 25 percent worse this year. Harvests are declining. The large cities are rationing water; Melbourne’s will be getting one-third less in 2009.
Climate scientists — and computer models — have been predicting this catastrophe for years, as the land Down Under is just like the Arctic, warming first, and faster and harder than most other regions. A study by the country’s blue-chip Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) identified its ecosystems as “potentially the most fragile” on earth in the face of the threat. The weather is unusual for now, but a University of Melbourne climatologist suggests that in the coming decades, this weather pattern will become Australia’s norm.
Both NASA and the Hadley Met Center have predicted that either 2009 or 2010 will be the warmest years ever recorded.
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One season of record temperatures cannot be attributed to climate change, but the story of Australian in 2009 is not just the story of one year. As the map above shows, temperatures in Australia have risen dramatically since 1950, and the country’s sustained drought is about to become critical. One year is weasther. Fourteen years of drought and 60 years of rising temperatures is climate change.
And here’s the thing. Sitting here in a Nova Scotia winter, global warming sounds like a good thing. Climate change sounds so benign, like friendly fire. But both should scare the bejesus out of you. Dr. John Holdren, Obama’s National Science Advisor is right; we should be calling it global climate disruption. Wet areas will be come much wetter. Dry regions will turn to dust bowls or deserts. Rivers will dry up, and forests will die.
Look at what’s happening to Australia — a 1-2°C rise in temperatures over 60 years has wrought such incredible devastation. Now think about this: some climate models are predicting that temperatures over the next 90 years will rise by between 5-7°C.
You’ll be able to pop your popcorn on the sidewalk. It might sound like fun in a theoretical sort-of-way, but I really don’t think we want to go there.
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* Canada will overtake Australia for this dubious honor in the next few years if current trends continue.