Copenhagen Speed Bumps
Apr 10th, 2009 by Richard
They started with fireworks, but ended with a fizzle. The 175 countries at the United Nations climate talks in Bonn have made little progress on the key sticking points in the climate treaty that will succeed Kyoto. Under the Bali roadmap, a new international accord must be in place by December at the annual UN climate meeting in Copenhagen. But five of seven intervening negotiating sessions have now come and gone with little progress on the big issues, which include:
Expectations were high for this session after recent pronouncements from the Obama administration — and special climate envoy Tony Stern — that the US was ready to lead the way to a new international understanding. But the US brought no new positions to the table, and US deputy special envoy for climate change, Jonathan Pershing, was closing down any expectation of quick progress. “The negotiations are just starting, this is a complicated subject… finding common ground will take some time.” *
Many analysts suggest that the climate talks are really just beginning now that the European Union has found an ally in Obama. An umbrella group of developed nations — including Canada, Japan, Russia, Australia and New Zealand — again garnered criticism for being be unwilling to talk about hard targets, and the Chinese delegation is said to be frustrated by the lack of progress. The WWF is calling on the US turn its rhetoric into action and develop concrete proposal for the next crucial meeting in late May.
The UN’s senior climate official, Yvo de Boer, conceded that it is now unlikely that rich nations will agree to 25 to 40% cuts in their emissions by 2020, the starting point for negotiations firmly recommended by scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and pushed by developing nations most at risk. “I’m not ruling it out but I’m saying it would be very difficult,” de Boer says. “If you look at the offers that are on the table at the moment, they’re a long way from that range.”
______________________
* Although I’m desperately hoping for progress — any progress — at these meetings, I don’t think it’s realistic for anyone to expect US negotiators to wave a magic wand, and all will be saved. The US economy is a great big lumbering beast, and it won’t be able to transition overnight. The process will need to begin with a concerted effort by this administration, and by other stakeholders, to convince the American public that climate change is real, and it’s threatening to roll right over them.
