Anthropogenic climate change and a naturally occurring drought are imperiling one of the western world’s most vital water sources, the Colorado River, according to a new scientific study published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. In fact, the study supports another released earlier this week — to be published in the Journal of Climate — which has determined that stream flow at fully one-third of the planet’s largest rivers has been reduced significantly, with climate change identified as a major culprit. Without a doubt, the pressure on fresh water resources is increasing dramatically, and that has major social and economic ramifications for the planet.
The Colorado study* offers a detailed look at what climate change could do to a major US watershed that serves 27 million people in seven states and Mexico. Climate change and drought are projected to reduce runoff from rain and snow melt in the Colorado River region by 10 to 30 percent over the coming decades. The result? By 2050, nearly nine of 10 scheduled deliveries of Colorado River water will not be possible. The study, by Scripps Institution of Oceanography researchers, parallels similar results published last year which suggested that Arizona’s Lake Mead had a 50 percent chance of going dry by 2021 if water usage isn’t significantly curtailed.
“A reservoir going dry is sort of an abstraction, certainly for the average person,” says Tim Barnett, a marine physicist who is the study’s lead author. “What we’re talking about here now is the water that comes out of your tap.”
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The Colorado study is based on computer modeling, and dozens of climate denial and anti-science web sites will suggest that you should put no faith in such studies. Of course, they’re dead wrong, and really don’t have a clue.
I understand computer modeling much better after reading Dr. Andrew Weaver’s terrific book, Keeping Our Cool. He’s a professor at the University of Victoria, and a Nobel laureate.
I’ll write about computer models soon. But, as you can see, this prediction is already supported by real world tests and hard empirical data collected by other river studies, including one released this week.