One Blue Marble Blog

US Climate Overview Should Scare the Bejesus Out of You

Jun 16th, 2009 by Richard

President Obama’s top science advisors have created a comprehensive climate change report which details the expected impact of global warming on the US, and urgently recommends decisive action. The report, by the Global Climate Research Program, is being unveiled by Dr. John Holdren, who heads the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and NOAA’s Dr. Jane Lubchenco. It is expected to provide the scientific support for the administration’s cap-and-trade policies, and the need to transition as quickly as possible to a low-carbon economy. By acting soon, and boldly, the report suggests that humanity has a chance to avoid the worst effects of climate change. By failing to act, society will place an overwhelming — and perhaps insurmountable — burden on future generations.

The report will suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, temperatures across the US will rise by between 9 and 11°F over the next 90 years. By any measure, that would be devastating. For example, the report predicts that temperatures in Kansas City will be above 90°F for more than 120 days per year by 2090. Houston and Washington will both suffer through temperatures greater than 98° for more than two months each year.

Among the report’s key findings:

Global warming is unequivocal, and humanity is driving it;

Climate change is already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems and health, with some states already suffering from difficult circumstances — and these stresses will increase in the decades ahead;

The scarcity of water will become a serious national issue;

Agriculture in some areas may be able to adapt to climate change, but increased temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, pests, diseases and weather extremes will challenge crops and livestock production, and lessen the ability of the US to feed itself;

Threats to human health — especially those related to heat stress, water-borne diseases, reduced air quality, extreme weather events and diseases — will increase significantly;

Sea-level will rise and storm surges will place many US coastal regions at increasing risk for erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, Pacific islands and parts of Alaska; energy and transportation infrastructure in coastal cities will likely to be adversely affected.*

UPDATE: A few other details culled from The Guardian.

The report, produced by more than 30 scientists at 13 government agencies dealing with climate change, provides the most detailed picture to date of the worst case scenarios of rising sea levels and extreme weather events: floods in lower Manhattan; a quadrupling of heat waves deaths in Chicago; withering on the vineyards of California; the disappearance of wildflowers from the slopes of the Rockies; and the extinction of Alaska’s wild polar bears in the next 75 years…

US cities will be choking because of deteriorating air quality; leisure pursuits will disappear. The report predicts that the ski season in the north-east will be 20% shorter. As for summer holidays, 14 of 17 North Carolina beaches will be permanently underwater by 2080, the draft forecasts.

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* This comment reminds me of an earlier study by Bush administration officials at the DOT which found that that 27 percent of major roads, nine percent of rail lines and 74 percent of ports are vulnerable to expected flooding by 2050 as the sea levels rise.

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